Romney

Oh Romney... ye of many faces. I like Romney, but he's held more positions than the Kama Sutra. He can't even seem to decide where he lives. It's Massachusetts... or is it Michigan... or Utah? I've lost track.

To be fair, Romney was governor of Massachusetts and Massachusetts is a terrible state to try to win an election in. As a state we're incredibly stubborn and disagreeable. If the entire country decides one way, you can almost guarantee that Massachusetts will go the other way. The other side of this fierce independence is that elected officials have to be nimble about their positions or they'll lose their seat as fast as they got it. They don't have to directly contradict their views, they just have to bend them and spin it to look like they do.

Overall Romney is fairly moderate. Pro-life, anti gay marriage, but not rabidly so. He's trying to please the entire Republican base which will ultimately either be why he wins or why he loses.

His biggest flaw (aside from the flip flopping) is that he's a Mormon. Granted most of the country doesn't really care about that, but it's still hovering around just waiting to rear it's ugly head again. Personally I think it's a stupid and bigoted reason to oppose a candidate. But then again, I'm not a conservative Christian fundamentalist.

Oops did I just call Christian fundies stupid bigots? My bad...

I honestly don't care about his faith, it's his business not the country's. Besides, even if he were a polygamist, he'd probably have fewer wives than Guiliani.

All in all I'd give him about a 35% chance of taking the nomination. BUT if he can take Florida that's going to bounce up quite a bit and seriously hurt McCain's chances.