I honestly have no idea how I feel about the healthcare ruling. This is in part because I don't know how I feel about Obamacare to begin with. It's a monstrous bill that manages to combine economics (which I'm still convinced is some kind of voodoo magic) and social welfare policy (which I understand well enough, I'm just not convinced in the goodness [or badness] of it). That said, even if I had a strong opinion on the issue, I'm not sure I'd know how the ruling made me feel. Luckily for me, the more I read, the more I realize that no one else does either.
I can say, with absolute certainty, that this decision is either a dramatic victory for Obama, a dramatic victory for Conservatives, a dramatic loss for Obama, a dramatic loss for Conservatives, or possibly a dramatic victory for Conservatives disguised as a dramatic victory for Obama. Or possibly a mixed and incoherent ruling.
Okay, seriously News Media.
What.
The.
Hell?
I really don't ask for that much from you people but seriously, this is ridiculous. Now, I get that there are different reactions to things like this. One side won, the other lost. Whether or not your side won should determine whether you think this is the best or worst decision since Sliced v. Bread.
I think I know what's going on. I think we're trapped in a suspicion loop. We've gotten to a point where we can't accept a victory (or a defeat) because we're constantly watching for the "hidden agenda". Sure, it looks like a victory, but that's just what they want us to think! But it's okay we know what they're really up to. But wait, they know that we know, so maybe it's a double ploy to get us off balance! But if they know we know that they know we know, then EVERYONE DIES.
So who knows. Maybe this is good, maybe it's bad. Maybe we won't really be able to estimate that for another 20 years. And maybe, just maybe, we would be better served by a little more reporting on the facts and implications thereof without tainting them with who won or who lost.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Stop Trying to Make Me Care About Wisconsin
I swear, everyone, on both sides of the aisle, is determined to make Wisconsin important. Yes, technically it's a "swing" state so our breaths should hang on every fickle whim of state election drama, but I'm just not buying it.
So, in case you live under a rock, a brief synopsis:
2010 - Wisconsin elects Republican Scott Walker as Governor. 52.3% - 46.5%
2011 - Governor Walker proposes and (after some good old fashioned antics from the Democrats) gets the legislature to pass Act 10 which, among other things, restricts state worker bargaining rights.
2011 - 7 State Senate recall elections are held, resulting in 2 seats changing hands from Republican to Democrat.
2012 - 4 additional State Senate recall elections are held as well as a recall for the Governor resulting in 1 seat changing hands from Republican to Democrat. Governor Walker receives a 53.1% - 46.3% majority.
So hooray... Now Wisconsin has a Republican Governor and Democratic majority in their State Senate. What does this mean for the rest of the country? Not a lot. Despite what people are saying, a 53% - 46% majority is not a "landslide victory". It is by no means a narrow win, but it's hardly a resounding triumph either.
What does it mean? It means that roughly the same percentage of people who elected him based on his campaign promises still support him for following through on said promises. He apparently hasn't really convinced anyone who didn't support him before that he's right, but the Democrats haven't convinced anyone that he's wrong either.
What doesn't it mean? It doesn't mean that Wisconsin is suddenly more likely to vote for Romney in November. Obama polls more consistently ahead in Wisconsin then he does in some states that RCP considers to be "leaning Obama". (See: Oregon and Michigan). The only times Wisconsin has voted Republican for President since the 70s were the actual landslides in 1980 and 1984.
Why I don't care either way:
First, even on the issue of collective bargaining rights for state employees, I don't really care what Wisconsin does. I'm not saying that it isn't an important issue, because it is, and if I lived in Wisconsin I would have a thoroughly researched opinion. That said, it's a state issue, not a national issue. If you oppose it and live in a state other than Wisconsin, the answer is pretty simple: Don't vote for anyone who proposes similar measures. If you happen to live in Wisconsin well, first, welcome, let me know how you found this because I don't know anyone in Wisconsin, second, he's up for reelection in 2014, vote him out of office. The recall was a referendum on that policy, a normal election can be about new issues rather than one singular divisive issue.
Second, as I stated above, I don't think this election will have much, if any, impact on the Presidential election in November. President Obama is polling consistently better than Governor Romney and will likely continue to do so.
Third, Wisconsin isn't going to matter in November. I know I'm going out on a limb here, but Wisconsin, with its 10 electoral votes, is not going to be the deciding factor in the general election. RCP, as linked to earlier, currently lists the Electoral Votes at 237 leaning Obama to 170 leaning Romney. So while Romney needs to win Wisconsin, Obama doesn't. Obama needs to pick up 2-3 of the swing states. Wisconsin might be one of them, but the focus is far more likely to be on Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
If I'm wrong, I'll eat my words. Literally, if, come November Wisconsin is the swing state that everything hinges on, I'll print this posting out and eat it. Otherwise, stop trying to make me care about Wisconsin.
So, in case you live under a rock, a brief synopsis:
2010 - Wisconsin elects Republican Scott Walker as Governor. 52.3% - 46.5%
2011 - Governor Walker proposes and (after some good old fashioned antics from the Democrats) gets the legislature to pass Act 10 which, among other things, restricts state worker bargaining rights.
2011 - 7 State Senate recall elections are held, resulting in 2 seats changing hands from Republican to Democrat.
2012 - 4 additional State Senate recall elections are held as well as a recall for the Governor resulting in 1 seat changing hands from Republican to Democrat. Governor Walker receives a 53.1% - 46.3% majority.
So hooray... Now Wisconsin has a Republican Governor and Democratic majority in their State Senate. What does this mean for the rest of the country? Not a lot. Despite what people are saying, a 53% - 46% majority is not a "landslide victory". It is by no means a narrow win, but it's hardly a resounding triumph either.
What does it mean? It means that roughly the same percentage of people who elected him based on his campaign promises still support him for following through on said promises. He apparently hasn't really convinced anyone who didn't support him before that he's right, but the Democrats haven't convinced anyone that he's wrong either.
What doesn't it mean? It doesn't mean that Wisconsin is suddenly more likely to vote for Romney in November. Obama polls more consistently ahead in Wisconsin then he does in some states that RCP considers to be "leaning Obama". (See: Oregon and Michigan). The only times Wisconsin has voted Republican for President since the 70s were the actual landslides in 1980 and 1984.
Why I don't care either way:
First, even on the issue of collective bargaining rights for state employees, I don't really care what Wisconsin does. I'm not saying that it isn't an important issue, because it is, and if I lived in Wisconsin I would have a thoroughly researched opinion. That said, it's a state issue, not a national issue. If you oppose it and live in a state other than Wisconsin, the answer is pretty simple: Don't vote for anyone who proposes similar measures. If you happen to live in Wisconsin well, first, welcome, let me know how you found this because I don't know anyone in Wisconsin, second, he's up for reelection in 2014, vote him out of office. The recall was a referendum on that policy, a normal election can be about new issues rather than one singular divisive issue.
Second, as I stated above, I don't think this election will have much, if any, impact on the Presidential election in November. President Obama is polling consistently better than Governor Romney and will likely continue to do so.
Third, Wisconsin isn't going to matter in November. I know I'm going out on a limb here, but Wisconsin, with its 10 electoral votes, is not going to be the deciding factor in the general election. RCP, as linked to earlier, currently lists the Electoral Votes at 237 leaning Obama to 170 leaning Romney. So while Romney needs to win Wisconsin, Obama doesn't. Obama needs to pick up 2-3 of the swing states. Wisconsin might be one of them, but the focus is far more likely to be on Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.
If I'm wrong, I'll eat my words. Literally, if, come November Wisconsin is the swing state that everything hinges on, I'll print this posting out and eat it. Otherwise, stop trying to make me care about Wisconsin.
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