McCain

Now for the Republicans. They're much more interesting to me this year. Not because I agree with their politics, but because their base is so divided right now that it's a genuine toss up for a change. For years the Republicans have been this weird conglomerate of war hawks, libertarians, evangelicals, and the wealthy. All of which have conflicting interests. Their only uniting factor was that they opposed the Democrats

McCain is the Republican candidate for the hawks. Veteran, POW, great American war hero. He's everything the pro-war, pro-military types love to see in a candidate. He's also going to be 72 before the general election in November and I'm fairly certain he's already on the short bus to senility.

He somehow manages to have cross-party appeal while holding no actual moderate opinions. I have to admit I respect the man and when he ran 8 years ago I was a big fan. The last 8 years have turned him from a respectable man that tells the truth even when people don't want to hear it into a borderline senile coot that wants us to believe Baghdad is safe just because no one shot him while he was surrounded by an squad of heavily armed soldiers.

All in all, he's not a bad guy and I'd say he's got about a 50% chance of winning the nomination and the Republicans could do worse in the current field... but I still think he's a crazy old man.