Well I was going to post something earlier today about gay marriage or abortion or some such issue (and something on those topics will come up sooner or later) but something very strange seems to have happened while I was at lunch. Apparently Mitt Romney decided to withdraw from the race. I can honestly say I'm surprised. I thought he was much too stubborn to bow out before the convention, partly because he always said he would be sticking it out until the convention as recently as Tuesday.
On the one hand, strategically it was his best move, on the other hand I was really hoping the Republicans would get dragged into a slugging match up through the convention the way the Democrats are still set up to do. At this point McCain really can start shifting over to appeal to moderates. Sure Huckabee and Paul are still technically running, but Huckabee never capitalized on his Iowa win the way he could have, and let's face it, Paul is almost entirely unelectable. Unless something goes horribly wrong (e.g. huge scandal, McCain dies, etc.) McCain will be the Republican nominee in a few months.
The interesting question now is: Who will his VP candidate be?
For obvious reasons right now both Romney and Huckabee are being speculated about. Other names that are being bandied about in forums and speculative news articles include Lieberman, Pawlenty, Ridge, Powell, Guilianni, and about 2 dozen other Governors and Senators. As to what McCain has planned I can only guess.
Romney and Huckabee both have obvious benefits and drawbacks. Romney can help make the northeast and the west competitive in ways they haven't been in years. Huckabee shores up the religious conservative credentials that McCain is lacking which will help in Florida and pretty much lock the south. On the down side they've both been fighting McCain for the last 3 months and not pulling punches so they'd have to sway the public on their change of heart, but I think they're both charismatic enough to pull it off. Guilianni falls into the same category, helping in much the same way as Romney but without exciting the conservative base at all so he's probably out of the running.
Lieberman would certainly be an interesting (if highly unlikely) choice. The Democrats would be hard pressed to beat them on a message of post partisanship and change. It's hard to argue that you're less partisan than an ostensibly cross-party ticket. (I should admit now that I really don't like Lieberman. 8 years ago I did, but I lost respect for him when he abandoned the Democratic party after he lost his last primary in Connecticut.) A McCain / Lieberman ticket could plausibly sweep the entire country, it probably wouldn't if only because Massachusetts is a bit contrarian but it's conceivable which is more than anyone has been able to say in many years.
Colin Powell would be another interesting choice, he's still widely respected even after the incidents while he was Secretary of State. He's still an unlikely choice though, he doesn't bring much to the ticket. He's a socially moderate, ex military septuagenarian and the ticket already has one of those. He might be moderate enough to carry the center but Lieberman is better for that route.
Pawlenty and Ridge I admittedly know much less about. I vaguely remember Ridge from the 2000 campaign but that's about it so I had to pull a little bit about them from wikipedia. Ridge is decidedly less likely than Pawlenty in my opinion. His time as Secretary of Homeland Security might hurt his otherwise moderate and northeastern credentials. Pawlenty seems to be in many ways a foil to McCain. He's a young, charismatic, moderate conservative from a moderately democratic state that could swing with him.
Ultimately its hard to guess who he'll pick. If he decides he wants a conservative Republican ticket it'll probably be Romney with Huckabee being the second best choice. If he wants a moderate Republican ticket expect Pawlenty with a slim chance of Guiliani. If he takes the leap of faith for a real campaign of change and moderation it'll have to be Lieberman or Powell if Lieberman declines.
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