Welcome to day one.
So, for a variety of personal reasons, I
have decided to participate in National Novel Writing Month this year... sort
of. First I should take a moment to explain NaNoWriMo to those who don't
know (and can't be bothered to look it up). It is, in short, an excuse to
use crappy November weather as motivation to stay inside and write like mad to
the tune of 50,000 words in a month, or a ballpark of 1,700 words per day and
at the end of the month have something resembling a short novel (or a long
novella, it appears to depend on who you ask with novelists scoffing at 50,000
word novels and everyone else agreeing that 40,000 is the barrier, but I
digress).
I say "sort of" regarding my
participation because while I am challenging myself to sit and write, in
volume, every day for the month of November, this is not going to be a novel or
anything resembling one. I am not a fiction writer, or more accurately, I
am not a dialogue writer. I can write a nice, compelling short story, but
200+ pages without a single conversation would be painful to read, let alone
write. So, those expectations being set aside, my goal this month is to
write 2000 words per day, every day on the kinds of topics that I've written
about before. Politics, current events, possibly some things about
science and technology, and, if all else fails, random thoughts about life.
When I agreed to do this, it didn't seem
like too big of a deal, I like to write, and I have wanted to get back to
writing on here anyway so it seemed like a great idea. After all, how
hard can 2000 words be to write? Well, for perspective, my last post was
just over 1000 words and took me two days of intermittent writing to finish (a
fact that disheartened me more than a little when I realized how short it was).
The other part of NaNoWriMo that I'm going
to buy into is creating entirely new content. I have at least a few posts
that are half finished from the last few months that never quite got finished.
I don't plan on using any of those this month to cheat on my word count.
If any of them do get fleshed out, then I will only be counting the new
content toward my total (so if you see any 3000 word posts, that's probably
why).
So, now that the housekeeping is out of
the way, let's move on to something lighter like... the government shutdown.
Okay, so I know it's over already, and I should have written this a month
ago, but November is young and this will probably come up again soon enough.
I guess that the easiest way to break down
the government shutdown is by the fundamentals; who, what, where, when, and
why.
The why is actually the easiest part to
understand for once so we'll start there. The short answer is, of course,
Obamacare, with some side arguments on the Debt Ceiling (again) and, in more
general terms, spending. Of all the shocking parts of the shutdown,
perhaps the most shocking was the lack of depth to any of the underlying
problems. Republicans in broad, general terms oppose government spending,
and that's okay. There is nothing inherently terrible about believing in
a government that can operate smaller and more efficiently than it currently
is. Unfortunately we seem to have reached a point where that is their only
concern. A large section of the Republican party (I'm look at you Tea
Partiers) seem to currently believe that the only responsibility of Congress is
to spend less money, slash expenditures, then slash taxes, any spending is bad
spending. That view is, and I’ll be generous, simplistic. To that
end, obviously they inherently oppose Obamacare (Spending money to help poor
people? Egad!) and, less rationally, raising the debt limit. With those
forces combined (and the need to have something resembling a budget for next
year) the House Republicans promptly jammed their fingers in their ears, stuck
out their tongues and refuse to act like adults, let alone congressmen.
(I don't live in DC, so I'm just assuming about the fingers in the ears
part.)
I can understand Republicans opposing Obamacare;
it's a massive bill that involves the Government spending money to meddle in
otherwise free(ish) markets. It would be shocking if they didn't oppose
it, but it passed and they've failed 46(?) times to repeal it. That is a
truly remarkable level of ineffectiveness, but in researching this, they seem
to believe the next time they'll finally hit that football (just like they did
after attempts 30, 41, and 45, and those were only the ones I stumbled across
trying to find the most recent number. (That analogy doesn't really work,
there's no Lucy pulling away the ball, they're just a delusional Charlie Brown
kicking over and over again and hoping someone feels sorry for them and puts a
football in front of their foot.) That's a reasonable, if somewhat sad
principle to stand on.
That brings me back to the Debt Ceiling.
First of all, let's just establish that the Debt Ceiling is awful.
It is bad policy. As with many things that are awful, it started as
an attempt to avoid fighting in Congress; specifically, over loans required to
run the country. I'm going to let that sink in... Before 1917
Congress approved borrowing when it was needed. In what now appears to
have been misguided optimism, Congress approved the Second Liberty Bond Act to
establish that the Treasury could just go ahead and borrow whatever was needed
up to a specified limit. And, shockingly, it worked just fine; at least
until 1974. That was when congress established a new budget process
through the Budget Act of 1974. At that point Congress had managed to
create a process where they required two separate and unrelated bills to pass a
budget. One to create the budget and spend the money and a separate bill
to actually approve borrowing the money they just spent. From 1979 to
1995, they bypassed this (wisely, in hindsight) with the Gephardt Rule,
essentially saying 'if we pass the budget we must, obviously be willing to
borrow what is needed to pay for it'. Congressional Republicans, because
apparently they were crazy before the Tea Party, decided that was too easy and
split the votes back apart. So now, just shy of 100 years later we find
ourselves with a Congress that can't manage to cut spending, but can, somehow,
manage to refuse to pay for their spending after the fact. This is why
the debt ceiling is not the same as a credit limit. We're not buying
things on credit cards; we're essentially buying things on our word.
Buying them with little more than a "no really, I'm totally good for
that" and we get away with it because, well, we have been. Refusing
to raise the Debt Ceiling is Congress saying "thanks for that stuff you
gave us; we're not going to pay you for it". If the Republicans had
a problem with the spending, they could have addressed it in a budget, but they
didn't, so to come back now and claim to be fiscally responsible by refusing to
pay what has already been spent is just flat out disingenuous.
So that was the easy part. Now for
the Who did What, When and Where. (In the following paragraph, you might
notice a lot of Republican names and very few Democrats, ponder that if you're
trying to figure out who to blame over the fiasco.) The only word for the
lead up to the shutdown that seems appropriate is "plodding".
It wasn't sudden, it wasn't shocking, and it wasn't effective. The buildup
started over the summer with letters of commitment to de-fund Obamacare that were
circulated by Senators Lee, Cruz, Rubio, and Paul, and Representative Meadows.
These letters formalized a written opposition to Obamacare, just in case
anyone was confused about where they stood after the first 40-odd actual votes
on repealing it. So, come October 1st the Republicans refused to approve
any budget that did not rescind funds from Obamacare. The Democrats
apparently found a spine somewhere and decided that this time they were going
to stand up and say "no".
A brief aside about defunding versus
repealing: At this point, the Republicans were not trying to repeal the
law, just take away the money to pay for it. Essentially, Obamacare would
have still been the law of the land, but no money would have been allocated to
make it actually usable (and they're having enough problems even with the
money, but more on that tomorrow).
So the Republicans said "you can't
have money for Obamacare", the Democrats said "yeah... we can"
and... that's basically it for 16 days. I'm certain the negotiations were
more in depth than that, but when you strip away all of the fluff, that's what
is left. Intermittent bills were introduced to fund certain things,
primarily to relieve constituent pressure, which were primarily rebuffed by
Senate Democrats. And so, 16 days later, they passed the bill that functionally
said "we can keep paying for things the same as we are now", the same
bill that some (on both sides of the aisle) had called for before the shutdown.
So, the good news, it got resolved without
any major harm on a national level. I have no doubt that those directly
affected by the shutdown, the federal employees, were in a bad way through no
fault of their own but it could have been much worse. Unfortunately,
there's still bad news. It will happen again. And again. And
again. This isn't the last debt limit crisis, nor is it the last
shutdown. These are the new tactics of the Republican Congressmen and
they'll be reelected and reinforced. They'll be reelected because nearly
all incumbents are, to the tune of 91% in the last election. Americans,
as a rule, hate Congress but love their own Congressmen. They'll be
reinforced because, even if it was a spectacularly bad plan, Cruz et al did
actually DO something. Or at least they tried to. Even in districts
where the incumbent loses, the Tea Party is likely to gain seats. They're
more likely to gain from within the Republican Party than from the Democrats,
but either way we're going to end up seeing more of this unless some dire
consequences finally come to pass.
There is a bright side though. Most
of the problem Republicans want to be President in 2016. There's always
the possibility that they'll take themselves out of Congress to run and tear
each other apart in the primaries without leaving any room to recover. As
long as nothing goes wrong before then...
1,820/60,000
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