That Thing You Do

In the ongoing saga that is the Democratic primary we finally have something new to talk about. Pennsylvania, home to Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and probably a couple people who live in between. In the latest battle of what I expect will be a grand lesson in Pyrrhic victories Clinton has once again proven that she wins in urban areas. Anyone that was surprised she won has either slept through the last three months or they've been drinking a bit too much of Obama's Kool-Aid.

At this point one of them really needs to bite the bullet and bow out. There are valid arguments for either one of them getting the nomination, but neither one of them is willing to make that admission. Obama is in the lead with the delegates and if the general election were a national popular vote he would be the clear choice. Unfortunately for Obama we don't have a national popular election. We have an electoral college with winner take all systems in most states. Obama has won the primaries in 26 states at this point compared to Clinton's 15. But is it a question of quantity or quality?

Of those 26 primaries, Obama has won in 12 states that are considered "safe" by the Republicans. In other words, no matter how badly he beat Clinton there, he won't win them in November. Additionally 9 of the states he won are considered "safe" by the Democrats. By comparison Clinton won 3 "safe" Republican states and 5 "safe" Democrat states. I'm choosing to ignore the "safe" states for the same reason the candidates will in the fall. They're almost guaranteed to go to their party.

This leaves Obama with 5 swing states and Clinton with 7. The only swing state that has yet to vote is West Virginia which I will predict with relative certainty that it will go to Obama. In fact, while I'm here making predictions, I also predict Montana, South Dakota, Kentucky, and North Carolina will go to Obama. I'm hedging my bets on Oregon and Indiana which I think could go either way.

Now then, assuming Obama takes West Virginia we have 6 swing states vs 7 swing states. They are: Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

Obama took Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Virginia for a total of 55 Electoral College votes.

Clinton took Arkansas, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas for a total of 95 Electoral College votes.

To put this in perspective, the required number to win is 270 Electoral College votes and the "safe" democrat states account come to 201 Electoral College votes. Furthermore the last 2 elections were decided by less than 40 Electoral College votes. Now, this isn't to say that Obama or Clinton wouldn't take the swing states they lost in the primary, but they'd certainly have an easier time winning states that already voted for them once.

I also feel obliged to point out that had Florida and Michigan not been so Earth shatteringly stupid in holding their primaries early, Clinton's Electoral College total would get another 44 vote bump. In the end, while I think Clinton is more electable, I think it's more important that it be decided before the convention. The democrats are shaping up to throw away the easiest victory they've had in years with this dirty campaigning and that's bad politics.